Question 83

Does the Mid-Year Review of the budget include updated estimates of government borrowing and debt, including its composition, for the budget year underway?
 * a. Yes, estimates of government borrowing and debt have been updated, and information on all of the differences between the original and updated estimates is presented.
 * b. Yes, estimates of government borrowing and debt have been updated, and information on some of the differences between the original and updated estimates is presented.
 * c. Yes, estimates of government borrowing and debt have been updated, but information on the differences between the original and updated estimates is not presented.
 * d. No, estimates of government borrowing and debt have not been updated.
 * e. Not applicable/other (please comment).

OBS Guidelines
Question 83 asks whether the Mid-Year Review includes updated estimates of borrowing and debt, including its composition, for the budget year, and provides an explanation of the update.

Refer to Question 13 for details on estimates in the Executive’s Budget Proposal of borrowing and debt. Key estimates related to borrowing and debt include: Refer to Question 14 for details on estimates in the Executive’s Budget Proposal related to the composition of the debt. Core information related to the composition of government debt include:
 * The amount of net new borrowing required during the budget year;
 * The central government’s total debt burden at the end of the budget year; and
 * The interest payments on the outstanding debt for the budget year.
 * interest rates on the debt;
 * maturity profile of the debt; and
 * whether the debt is domestic or external.

To answer “a,” the Mid-Year Review must include an updated estimates of borrowing and debt, including its composition, and explain all of the differences between the initial estimates presented in the Executive’s Budget Proposal (or Enacted Budget) and the updated estimates. The explanation must include at least estimates of all differences; a narrative discussion is desirable but not required if estimates of all the differences are provided. To answer “b,” the estimates of borrowing and debt must be updated, but only some of the differences between the initial and updated estimates are explained. The explanation would be more limited, such as only a narrative discussion of the differences or estimates covering only some of the differences. A “c” response applies if the Mid-Year Review includes updated estimates, but no explanation for the revisions is provided. A “d” response applies if the estimates of borrowing and debt have not been updated.

1) Should we only accept updated, revised figures (as opposed to budgeted or six-month implementation figures)?
Just six-month implementation figures are not acceptable. To accept full-year figures that are the same as the original enacted figures, there has to be some indication that the country is affirming that the original enacted figures are remaining the same for the rest of the budget year (this could be as simple as the title of the column heading). For example, if the column heading is “Approved 2019 Budget,” we would not accept this information.

2) When only some estimates have been updated, but all differences are explained
In OBS 2019, in Jamaica’s Mid-Year Review, 4 of the 6 estimates of government borrowing and debt were updated (1. amount of net new borrowing; 2. total debt burden; 3. interest payments on the outstanding debt; 4. whether the debt is domestic or external). In addition, information on all the differences between those four original and four updated estimates was presented.

We assess this as a “b” response to be consistent in our evaluations of Question 83 and Question 90, which ask similar questions. For this question, if there is some information on updated estimates, and some or all differences are discussed, we score it a “b”. Meanwhile, if the MYR has any (or all) information on updated estimates, but no discussion of differences, a “c” response is appropriate. A MYR with ALL information on updated estimates and ALL discussion on differences would qualify as an “a” response.

3) Differences between “a”, “b” and “c” scores
The guidelines for these questions are a bit confusing and in OBS 2019, we made the following clarification during a team discussion:

For an “a” score on this question, the country’s MYR must present two of the three following figures for each of the pieces of core information: the budgeted figure, the revised figure, or the differences between them, either in table or narrative form.

For a "b" score on this question, if the MYR presents two of the three following figures for some (but not all) of the pieces of core information: the budgeted figure, the revised figure, or the differences between them, either in table or narrative form.

Finally, the country scores a “c” if there are revised figures but no information on differences.