COVID Module Question 1

Did the government publish, as part of published budget documents and information about emergency fiscal policy packages or elsewhere, updated macroeconomic projections, comparing them to the originally approved ones for the current fiscal year?

Guidelines
As the COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact on the macroeconomic environment in which government budgets were originally formulated, Question 1 asks whether the government published an update to the macroeconomic forecast that underlies the budget’s revised revenue and expenditure estimates.

The types of information that should be a part of the government’s updated macroeconomic forecast include: estimates of the nominal GDP; the inflation rate; the real GDP growth; interest rates; and the unemployment rate. Additionally, some governments may also provide updated information on: the price of oil and/or other commodities; the exchange rate; short and long-term interest rates; the GDP deflator; the current account; and the composition of GDP growth.

The question also asks whether the presentation includes a comparison between the revised macroeconomic projections and the originally approved ones for the current fiscal year, as well as a narrative explaining the revised macroeconomic projections, providing a discussion for instance of the differences between original and revised projections, and how these are linked to the impact of the pandemic.

Tick boxes: ''Please check the boxes of the items that appear in the relevant documentation. If none of the items are presented, please check ‘None of the Above’. In the comment box, please provide a detailed citation for each item selected below as described in the assessment directions as well as any additional details.''


 * ☐  Nominal GDP level
 * ☐  Inflation rate
 * ☐  Real GDP growth
 * ☐  Interest rates
 * ☐  Unemployment rate
 * ☐  Comparison between originally approved and updated projections
 * ☐  Explanatory narrative
 * ☐  Other (please specify in the comment box)
 * ☐  None of the above

1) Should researchers only reference documents produced by the executive?
No. Researchers can use any documents produced by any public entity to answer the questions, at least to start with. We can then, when analyzing the results, decide whether these "count" or not. If you have any questions or concerns regarding a particular document, please bring it to the team.

2) On referring to documents other than those used to introduce or describe the emergency fiscal policy package
In some countries, researchers have referred to updated macroeconomic information or aggregte revenue/spending information published in documents other those used to introduce or describe the EBFF. These include EBPs, IYRs, and MYRs, which were published between 1 March 2020 and 31 December 2020. The question is whether we should accept the information included in these reports and under what circumstances. We are willing to accept updated assumptions published in the next key budget documents that is published. If, however, the government skips updating its assumptions in the next document in the line-up and only does it in some subsequent document, we will not give them credit. The rationale is that if the government regularly publishes budget information during the year, then it makes sense that they would use the publications of those documents as an opportunity to provide information related to the emergency fiscal package.