Question 104

Does the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) publish macroeconomic and/or fiscal forecasts?
 * a. Yes, the IFI publishes its own macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts.
 * b. Yes, the IFI publishes its own macroeconomic or fiscal forecast.
 * c. No, the IFI does not publish its own macroeconomic or fiscal forecast, but it does publish an assessment of the official macroeconomic and/or fiscal forecasts produced by the executive.
 * d. No, there is no IFI; or the IFI neither publishes its own macroeconomic and/or fiscal forecasts, nor a commentary on the official forecasts produced by the executive.
 * e. Not applicable/other (please comment).

OBS Guidelines
Question 104 assesses whether an Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) has a role in producing the macroeconomic forecast (e.g., GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, etc.) and/or the fiscal forecast (revenues, expenditure, deficits, and debt), and if so, what kind of role it has. Macroeconomic and/or fiscal forecasting is a typical core function across IFIs, but their role in forecasting takes several forms (von Trapp et al. 2016, p. 17 and Table 2). Some IFIs produce just a macroeconomic forecast, while others produce a complete fiscal forecast (which also typically requires an underlying macroeconomic forecast). In some cases, the fiscal forecast reflects continuation of current budget policies; such forecasts can be used by the legislature, the media, or the public to assess the projections in the executive’s budget reflecting the government’s policy proposals. Some IFIs produce the official macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts used in the executive’s budget. In other cases, IFIs do not prepare their own independent forecasts, but rather produce an assessment of the official estimates, or provide an opinion on, or endorsement of, the government’s forecasts. Some others have no role at all in forecasting.

To answer “a”, there must be an IFI that publishes both its own macroeconomic AND fiscal forecasts. Answer “b” applies if an IFI publishes its own macroeconomic OR fiscal forecast (but not both). Answer “c” applies if the IFI does not publish a macroeconomic or fiscal forecast, but rather publishes an assessment of the official forecasts produced by the executive and used in the budget. Choose option “d” if there is no IFI; or if there is an IFI that neither publishes its own macroeconomic and/or fiscal forecasts, nor a commentary on the official forecasts for the budget.

Macroeconomic forecasts may include indicators relating to economic output and economic growth, inflation, and the labor market, amongst others. Fiscal forecasts may include estimates of revenues, expenditures, the budget balance, and debt. If the answer is “a” or “b,” please specify which indicators and estimates are included in the forecasts and whether the forecast is used by government as the official forecast. If the answer is “c,” please describe the nature and depth of the assessment (e.g., the length of the commentary, or whether it covers both economic and fiscal issues).