Question 16

Does the Executive’s Budget Proposal or any supporting budget documentation show the impact of different macroeconomic assumptions (i.e., sensitivity analysis) on the budget? (The core information must include estimates of the impact on expenditures, revenue, and debt of different assumptions for the inflation rate, real GDP growth, and interest rates.)


 * a. Yes, information beyond the core elements is presented to show the impact of different macroeconomic assumptions on the budget.
 * b. Yes, the core information is presented to show the impact of different macroeconomic assumptions on the budget.
 * c. Yes, information is presented, but it excludes some core elements.
 * d. No, information related to different macroeconomic assumptions is not presented.
 * e. Not applicable/other (please comment).

Guidelines
Question 16 focuses on the issue of whether the Executive’s Budget Proposal shows how different macroeconomic assumptions affect the budget estimates (known as a “sensitivity analysis”). It asks whether “core” information related to a sensitivity analysis is presented, estimating the impact on expenditures, revenue, and debt of different assumptions for:
 * inflation rate;
 * real GDP growth; and
 * interest rates.

A sensitivity analysis shows the effect on the budget of possible changes in some macroeconomic assumptions, and is important for understanding the impact of the economy on the budget; for instance, what would happen to revenue collections if GDP growth were slower than what is assumed in the budget proposal? Or what would happen to expenditure if inflation were higher than estimated? Or how will revenue be affected by a decrease in the price of oil?

As noted for Question 15, changes in certain macroeconomic assumptions, such as the price of oil and other commodities, can have a significant impact on the budget estimates. As a result, some sensitivity analyses may also examine the impact on the budget estimates of changes in assumptions such as the price of oil that are beyond the core elements of the inflation rate, real GDP growth, and interest rates.

For examples of a sensitivity analysis see:


 * United States in its 2021 Budget Analytical Perspectives presents a Sensitivity of the Budget to Economic Assumptions and a table that shows the impact on revenues and spending and the net effect on the deficit, for each economic scenario. (See pages 16- 17).


 * Philippines in its 2021 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF) presents the impact of different macroeconomic assumptions on expenditures, revenue and debt of different assumptions for the inflation rate, real GDP growth rate, and interest rates. (See Table A.6 titled “Budget Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Parameters, 2021,” page 131 - On the Technical Notes on the 2021 Proposed National Budget it provides a narrative discussion of the Budget’s Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Parameters. (See pages 12 to 13).

To answer “a,” the Executive’s Budget Proposal or supporting documentation must present all of the core information related to a “sensitivity analysis” as well as some additional information beyond the core elements. To answer “b,” the Executive’s Budget Proposal or supporting documentation must present all of the core components noted above. Answer “b” is also accepted if one of the core elements is not presented but additional information beyond the core elements is presented. A “c” answer applies if some information related to a “sensitivity analysis” is presented, but some of the core pieces of information are not included. Answer “d” applies if no information on “sensitivity analysis” is presented.