Question 76

Does the Mid-Year Review of the budget include an updated macroeconomic forecast for the budget year underway?
 * a. Yes, the estimates for the macroeconomic forecast have been updated, and an explanation of all of the differences between the original and updated forecasts is presented.
 * b. Yes, the estimates for macroeconomic forecast have been updated, and an explanation of some of the differences between the original and updated forecasts is presented.
 * c. Yes, the estimates for macroeconomic forecast have been updated, but an explanation of the differences between the original and updated forecast is not presented.
 * d. No, the estimates for macroeconomic forecast have not been updated.
 * e. Not applicable/other (please comment).

OBS Guidelines
Question 76 asks whether the Mid-Year Review includes an updated macroeconomic forecast for the budget year underway, and provides an explanation of the update.

Refer to Question 15 for the components of the macroeconomic forecast presented in the Executive’s Budget Proposal.

To answer “a,” the Mid-Year Review must include an updated macroeconomic forecast and explain all of the differences between the initial forecast presented in the Executive’s Budget Proposal and the updated forecast. The explanation must include at least estimates of all differences; a narrative discussion is desirable but not required if estimates of all the differences are provided. To answer “b,” the macroeconomic forecast must be updated, but only some of the differences between the initial and updated forecasts are explained. The explanation would be more limited, such as only a narrative discussion of the differences or estimates covering only some of the differences. A “c” response applies if the Mid-Year Review includes an updated macroeconomic forecast, but does not provide an explanation for the revisions. A “d” response applies if the macroeconomic forecast has not been updated.

1) Differences between “a”, “b” and “c” scores
The guidelines for these questions are a bit confusing and in OBS 2019, we made the following clarification during a team discussion:

For an “a” score on this question, the country’s MYR must present two of the three following figures for each of the pieces of core information: the budgeted figure, the revised figure, or the differences between them, either in table or narrative form.

For a "b" score on this question, if the MYR presents two of the three following figures for some (but not all) of the pieces of core information: the budgeted figure, the revised figure, or the differences between them, either in table or narrative form.

Finally, the country scores a “c” if there are revised figures but no information on differences.